Another hot topic as of late is how a second Trump presidency and threatened tariffs will affect our local economy and real estate market. Truly, the full impact of tariffs is not yet known, but there is a potential risk that if we see a resulting downturn in our local economy, this could affect our real estate sector. That said, only time will tell how things will shake out as several factors are at play, including the length and severity of tariffs, if they occur and inter-provincial differences between our housing markets and economies. Only one thing is certain: the next four years should be interesting, to say the least...
Below is an electronic copy of the first volume of our semi-annual report. We hope that you enjoy it!
- Frances, Thomas, & Team
CREB 2025 ECONOMIC FORECAST
Courtesy of the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB)
CALGARY ECONOMIC SUMMARY
Alberta’s economy thrives due to high energy prices, a favourable exchange rate, and increased production from the TMX pipeline. Strong population growth has supported housing and construction despite high lending rates, positioning Alberta as a leader in 2024 economic growth.
Looking ahead to 2025, the potential U.S. tariffs may slow expansion, but investments in alternative energy, carbon capture and storage, food manufacturing, AI data centers, and expected interest rate cuts will help sustain growth. If Alberta avoids tariffs, growth could nearly double projections, boosting interprovincial migration and housing activity.
Data Source: CREB 2025 Forecast Report
KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
EMPLOYMENT
Looking ahead to 2025, employment levels are expected to grow by 2%, driven by construction, retail trade, healthcare, and education gains. At the same time, easing migration is projected to slow labour force growth and prevent further increases in unemployment rates.
POPULATION
Strong international and interprovincial migration has fueled Alberta’s housing market, driving 2024 population growth to 4.4%, with Calgary exceeding 5%. While migration levels are beginning to ease, they remain high.
Federal policy changes and slowing interprovincial migration are expected to drop in 2025, though Calgary’s growth is projected to stay above the provincial average.
LENDING RATES & INFLATION
Alberta’s economy is poised for growth in 2025, driven by investments in alternative energy, carbon capture, food manufacturing, and AI—yet potential U.S. tariffs could reshape the trajectory.
CALGARY HOUSING STARTS
% of Calgary CMA (Census Metropolitan Area)
CALGARY'S RENTAL MARKET
Data Source: CREB 2025 Forecast Report
2024 CALGARY MARKET REVIEW
FEB 2025 - 2024 certainly was a busy year in the Calgary real estate market. Through the first half of the year, extreme seller’s market conditions led to substantial price appreciation across all market sectors, with multiple offers the norm for nearly every property priced under $750,000.
Supply increased through the second half of 2024, and sales stabilized, slowly balancing the market. For some sellers, returning to more normalized market conditions was a bit of a shock, as accurate pricing and effective marketing suddenly became important once again for a sale to be realized in a reasonable period.
Overall, price growth and market conditions vary depending on location and property type, but Calgary saw significant price growth in 2024, with benchmark pricing rising between 10% and 15%.
DETACHED SECTOR
SEMI-DETACHED
TOWNHOME SECTOR
APARTMENT SECTOR
LOOKING AHEAD TO 2025
In 2025, housing demand is expected to remain above long-term trends, supported by past gains in population and employment, easing lending rates, and better supply options. However, factors such as slowing migration from record highs, increased competition from new home construction, and heightened economic uncertainty will likely limit further growth in resale activity. Despite this, the forecasted sales of over 26,000 units reflect a strong housing market, with activity levels over 20 percent higher than long-term trends. Higher-priced resale homes may see slower price growth due to increased competition from new, higher-priced properties in areas where new homes are being built. Lower-priced resale homes are expected to see stronger price growth, supported by steady demand and limited supply options. Overall, prices are expected to climb by 3% on average through 2025, although the threat of tariffs does prevent a significant risk to the real estate market from performing as expected.
2024 NEWINFILLS MARKET UPDATE
Similar to the overall Calgary market in 2024, the new infill sector saw strong demand and significant price appreciation 2024 throughout the inner city. Average pricing for a typical single-family infill rose nearly 12% in 2024, while average pricing for a typical townhome rose 10%.
The single-family new infill sector ended the year with 397 sales, the highest level recorded in nearly 10 years, although pretty much on par with 2023. Despite considerable construction activity, strong sales have decreased inventory levels in the single-family sector. 2024 saw an average of 133 homes for sale, down 13% from 2023, although up from 2022 levels.
On the other hand, the new infill townhouse sector has continued to experience soft sales due to supply challenges. In 2024, just 52 new townhomes were sold, down 21% from 2023 and nearly 60% from the peak sales activity in 2021. Although townhouse construction continues to boom throughout Calgary, most are purpose-built rental properties. That said, a softening rental market may cause some townhome developers to reconsider this plan in 2025 and build to sell instead.
SINGLE FAMILY NEW INFILLS
*Benchmark Property: 1700-2000 sq ft, 2-storey, double garage
NEW INFILL TOWNHOMES
*Benchmark Property: 1,100 - 1,400 sq ft, 2+ storey, single garage
URBAN UPGRADE 2024 PERFORMANCE STATS
2024 NEWINFILLS STATS
2024 HOLIDAY FOOD DRIVE
AGENT SPOTLIGHT
We sat down with one of the most long-standing members of our team to ask a few questions...
- Calgary has seen a record number of newcomers over the past few years. How have you adapted your listings to accommodate more out-of-town buyers?
Being born and raised in Calgary gives me a massive advantage in understanding the features of each community and what is important to highlight to buyers who may not be as familiar with the area compared to a local. I make sure to point out all the community and property features in each home I list and sell, and I frequently use local amenity maps to showcase this. - It sounds like you really focus on marketing when promoting your properties for sale.
I have a background in marketing, so this is something that comes naturally to me. Enhancing my personal marketing strategies helps differentiate my listings from those of competitors. It's crucial to research ways to stand out, as every detail matters for making a strong first impression and getting a home sold. - What do you like most about being a Realtor?
Watching my clients and their families grow in their personal and professional lives, and knowing I have been a part of that journey. - What do you like most about being a part of the Urban Upgrade & NewInfills team?
When I am busy or travelling out of town, I know I can count on the team to step in and ensure my clients are well cared for in my absence.
NEWS FLASH
NEWS FLASH
If you've been a homeowner in Calgary for any amount of time, you've likely heard of radon—an invisible threat that often goes unnoticed.
RADON EXPLAINED
Radon is a naturally occurring radioactive gas that is colourless and odourless, resulting from the breakdown of uranium in soil and rock and can accumulate to dangerous levels. It can seep into homes through foundation cracks, sump pits, and other openings. During winter, homes remain sealed tight, and the risk of radon exposure increases. Prolonged exposure to high levels of radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer, responsible for over 3,000 deaths annually in Canada.
IS THIS AN ISSUE IN CALGARY?
Studies show that many Calgary homes exceed Health Canada's recommended radon level of 200 Bq/m³. Factors such as foundation type, ventilation, and local geology influence radon concentration, meaning even newly built homes can be affected. The only way to know your home's radon level is to test for it.
TEST YOUR HOUSE
Testing is simple and affordable, with options for DIY kits or professional assessments. The ideal testing period is when windows and doors remain closed during colder months. Test kits generally cost between $30 and $75 - well worth the investment for your family's health. Although short-term and long-term tests are available, experts recommend testing for at least 90 days since radon levels can fluctuate significantly daily.
TAKE ACTION AND REMEDIATE
If high radon levels are detected, have no fear - excessive radon levels can be successfully mitigated in every type of home. Calgary has several radon remediation companies that can review and recommend an appropriate solution. In some cases, merely sealing cracks, sump pumps, and other foundation penetrations is enough to lower radon levels to acceptable levels. In other cases, a remediation system consisting of a fan which draws air from under the foundation and vents it outside the home may need to be installed. Most remediations cost less than $2,500 - a small amount of money to invest in your family's health.
DID YOU KNOW?
“ACCEPTABLE” RADON LEVELS VARY
Radon levels are measured in becquerels per cubic meter (Bq/m3). Health Canada’s radon action guideline is 200 Bq/m³, but other jurisdictions have set different limits. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a limit of 100 to 300 Bq/m³, and the United States has a limit of 148 Bq/m³. Even if your radon levels are below 200 Bq/m3, you may still want to try to reduce levels to as low as reasonably achievable.
Sources:
MAKING HEADLINES
TAX ASSESSMENT TOO HIGH?
It’s that time of year! By now, Calgary homeowners should have received their property tax assessments from the City, with property taxes due by June 30, 2025. If you believe your property has been overvalued, consider getting a second opinion and potentially lowering your bill. The City offers a Customer Review Period from January 10 to March 21, 2025, during which you can discuss concerns or file a formal complaint. Don’t wait—visit the City of Calgary’s website to review your assessment and file an appeal before the deadline! And if you need a second opinion, we can help!
Learn more about Tax Assessment Myths on our blog HERE
THE IMPACT OF U.S. TARIFFS ON CALGARY’S HOUSING MARKET
Economic uncertainty may dampen housing activity in the first quarter. Broad 25% tariffs on exports could push Alberta into recession, impacting investment, employment, and consumer confidence amid rising housing supply. Conversely, if the energy sector is exempt from tariffs or they are temporary, Alberta might see improved job growth, higher interprovincial migration, and stronger housing sales and prices. Ultimately, only time will tell.
2025: A SOFTENING RENTAL MARKET IN CALGARY?
The rental market has been incredibly strong over the past few years, with rents rising significantly from 2022 to 2024. That said, over the past two years, declining rental vacancies and rising rental rates have driven significant growth in rental construction. By the October 2024 CMHC rental survey, over 5,500 purpose-built rental units had been added to the market.
This increase in supply is raising vacancy rates and causing downward pressure on rents. In fact, many landlords have reported significant declines in rental enquiries and interest since last Spring. Many have had to mark down rents between 10-20% to gain tenants.
Supply growth is expected to continue into 2025 as more rental units are completed. At the same time, slower international migration is anticipated to temper demand. These factors should further improve rental availability, which will continue to weigh on rental rates in Calgary in 2025.
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